Researching CME Settlement vs RTH Close (E-mini S&P 500 Futures) and its Effect on Swing Targets
  1. CME Data – ES
  2. CME Settlement (Official Close)
  3. RTH Close (Session Close, Bar 81)
  4. Successful Test of CME close can be scalp distance away
  5. Using CME Close for MM Up/Down
  6. CME Close test target for swing
  7. CME Close test target for scalps
  8. CME Close prior day exit
  9. CME Close buy price for swing entry
  10. CME Close buy limit order but no fill? Strong Breakout MM
  11. Conclusion

Thanks to my friend and trader Tim Stout for the great chat we had in Orlando regarding ES – Bar 78 vs Bar 81. (CME vs RTH Close.) It was never a focus of my research before, having worked on Bar 81 only. So a big thank you for that mate!


CME Data – ES

  • If you are looking to check your data you can find it here:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.html#venue=globex


CME Settlement (Official Close)

  • Calculated from the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of all trades between 14:59:30 and 15:00:00 Central Time (CT) on the CME Globex platform.
  • If no trades occur during that 30-second window, CME uses the midpoint of the best bid and ask at that time.
  • This value is the official daily settlement price used for margining, clearing, and performance marking.

RTH Close (Session Close, Bar 81)

  • Refers to the final trade of the Regular Trading Hours (RTH) session, typically 15:00 CT / 16:00 ET, marking the end of the U.S. cash equity session.
  • Represents the last traded price of the RTH chart (often bar 81 in a 5-minute RTH sequence).
  • Commonly used by discretionary traders for price action analysis, daily structure, and “day session” references.
  • It is not used for settlement or margin purposes and may differ slightly from the CME settlement.

Key Distinctions

AspectCME SettlementRTH Close
BasisVWAP (14:59:30–15:00:00 CT)Last trade at session end
FunctionOfficial mark for margin & clearingVisual/trading reference
AlignmentGlobex system timeU.S. cash equity close
StabilitySmoothed over 30 secondsCan vary on last tick volatility
Use CaseReporting, clearing, gap calculationsPrice action analysis, session studies

Successful Test of CME close can be scalp distance away

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6XZNsvyv/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cd3gNe5U/


Using CME Close for MM Up/Down

  • Failed breakout above /below can be a useful reference for swing targets on the open.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rk2b6BPe/


CME Close test target for swing

  • Daily chart, good bull bar, but we open below it? Swing towards it the next day – look how precise!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/d64u0pNP/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/moYbNOx2/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZcJuu5PZ/
  • Strong selloff from a good buy signal on the DAILY chart
  • So potential multi-day swing target – here using 60 mi chart ETH and RTH
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gmh7B4eS/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0WgYBiDP/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5arpiZyx/


CME Close test target for scalps

  • Traders buying 10pt – 15pt – 20pt away back to it and exiting at it
https://www.tradingview.com/x/BRaep7MW/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YNyN0HI5/


CME Close prior day exit

  • Bull bar buy signal, but then reversal bar triggers, exit at that price
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RXMR1rcC/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iytqZfbS/


CME Close buy price for swing entry

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ctia0qF7/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qfKp7toK/

CME Close buy limit order but no fill? Strong Breakout MM

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tMzZsbvs/

Conclusion

  • I hope the exploration above will inspire you to research the appropriate magnets in your trading.
  • If you day trade ES I would consider adding this to your arsenal!

Thanks,

Tim F

One response to “Researching CME Settlement vs RTH Close (E-mini S&P 500 Futures) and its Effect on Swing Targets”

  1. gleaming85caea15ba Avatar
    gleaming85caea15ba

    Hi Tim,

    I think you meant b78 for the RTH close, didn’t you?

    For some reason, Trading View, and many members of the futures community put b81 as the final bar for futures based instruments (ES/NQ/YM/etc.), and this used to be true years ago, but the CME changed this to 4pm (Chicago time), and the New York equities close at 3pm (Chicago time), so, as far as I can tell, b81 is just a relic, unless I am missing something?

    Liked by 1 person

Leave a reply to gleaming85caea15ba Cancel reply

I’m Tim

Welcome to Zen Trading Tech.

I’m a Aussie day trader and I post trading tips, practice drills, and indicators that helped my trading get to a professional level.

Everything here is to help train the eyes and hands to trade better. If it helped me I’ll post it for others. Hope you enjoy!